About Me 0088: Making Money Cash

Pinger’s disruptive Textfree service is heading to Europe, and it’s doing it with the help of hottest buzzword around: gamification.

Pinger has managed to build a huge userbase in the United States by offering free text messaging without any major catches: users are given their own, real phone numbers, and they can send and receive text messages with any phone. And, most important — the app works on the iPod touch, which doesn’t otherwise have SMS functionality built-in. Pinger also launched a free voice calling service in December but lets users make free phone calls and earn minutes by completing basic offers. Pinger makes money off of these offers and by running ads in its mobile apps— to the tune of billions of impressions a month.

But the SMS situation in Europe makes international expansion a difficult affair. Cofounder Greg Woock explains that in the US, when a text message is exchanged both the sender and recipient ‘burn’ one of their texts — in other words, they’re both paying for it. Things are different in Europe, where only the sender pays for the text. The recipient pays nothing, but the carrier of the recipient does pay the sender’s carrier a few Euro cents. Yes, it’s a little confusing.

Woock says that this model doesn’t normally lend itself well to a free texting model, because Pinger could wind up owing carriers boatloads of cash if its users are receiving more texts than they’re sending. We’re talking many many millions of dollars owed if it could build a userbase as sizable as the one they have in the US.

But Pinger came up with as solution: it’s going to use game mechanics to ensure that users are sending and receiving the same number of text messages. That way Pinger will be paying European carriers the same amount the carriers are paying Pinger. The net result: Pinger can run a texting service that’s free of charge, and it can place ads on top of it through its mobile applications, the same way it has in the US. In theory Pinger could actually use the game mechanics to ensure users are sending more texts then they’re receiving, which would wind up with Pinger actually making money from the carriers.

The game mechanics themselves sound pretty straightforward: users are presented with a meter that’s at 100% when you’ve sent and received an equal number of text messages. If you send a message, that percentage drops a bit. Receive one, and it goes up. Pretty easy.

But what happens when you’ve dropped to 40% and are worried about being able to send more texts? The trick, Woock explains, is to tap into your social graph (he says the company consulted with Zygna for advice on this front). Textfree will prompt users to post updates to their Facebook News Feed inviting their friends to send them text messages, which in turn will boost their meter. I’d imagine this would be a little weird to see initially (“hey guys, please send me text messages!”) but no more so than a Zynga game that prompts you to ask your friend for helping watering some virtual plants.

I asked Woock how the European carriers felt about the model. He says that all of the carriers they’ve spoken too have been very supportive and see an opportunity for incremental revenue. And he adds that Pinger has applied for patents on the meter system that drives the equal flow of texting.

Pinger’s mobile app will be launching in a small test in Germany in the coming weeks (they want to make sure the model works). Assuming that goes well, it will be expanding throughout Europe in the near future.

Last August I wrote an article that highlighted the wide spread between the earnings yield on the S&P500 and the yield on treasury bonds. At the time the S&P 500 was in the 1,050-1,100 range which produced an earnings yield of around 7% based on consensus earnings expectations.

Meanwhile 10 year treasury yields had plunged below 3% in anticipation of QE2, producing a net spread between the two of more than 4%. Stocks were a better investment than bonds back then, and soon afterwards the equity market began a rally that took it some 25% higher before today’s list of concerns induced a pull-back. Treasury yields also rose over than time though in recent weeks they’ve dipped back below 3%.

Which brings us to today’s comparison. This morning The Wall Street Journal noted that 2011 full year earnings estimates provided by equity strategists are around $95. Consensus earnings using bottom-up forecasts are higher, which was the point of the article but that’s another story. $95 in earnings on today’s S&P500 of 1,280 is 7.4%, compared with 10 year treasuries of 2.9%. The spread between the two is back to where it was last Summer, in fact it’s even wider. Bonds are once again an unattractive investment.

This is not to ignore the risks currently facing investors. U.S. GDP growth has been disappointingly weak, and the headwinds from high gas prices as well as continued soft housing are weighing on the near term outlook. In addition the European debt crisis meanders on, with the entire world acknowledging Greece’s inability to satisfy its obligations while the EU and IMF persist in throwing good money after bad.

This week’s vote on austerity in the Greek parliament will usher in another round of tax revenue and privatization targets that are unlikely to be met. For this reason the Euro looks vulnerable, and if there are any surprises they’re likely to be negative ones.

Our equity accounts remain fully invested. We think there are good values to be found in selected stocks. One of our biggest positions in Microsoft (MSFT). It’s been a value trap for many investors, but they’ll likely earn $2.58 a share this year and $2.77 next (their fiscal year end is June), and with cash net of long term debt of $38 BN or $4.50 per share the stock is at a P/E of 7.5.

We have also been adding to positions in retailers – specifically we like Family Dollar (FDO). Their low-income customer base will benefit from cheaper gas, and slower growth tends to help this sector as cash-strapped consumers trade down. But FDO also has the opportunity to improve its margins; their sales revenue per square foot is only $163 whereas Dollar General (DG) manages $194. FDO’s operating margin is only 7.3% compared with 10.7% at Dollar Tree (DLTR). Improving these metrics should allow FDO to grow earnings faster than its peers. Holders of their stock include a number of value-seeking investors such as Pershing Square, Lone Pine and Paulson. Nelson Peltz offered $55-60 for the company earlier this year, and management’s rejection suggests they should have some concrete plans to raise the stock price themselves.

In Fixed Income we continue to focus our interest rate risk around the two year sector of investment grade bonds. We don’t like the risk of longer maturities – yields are way too low given the U.S. fiscal position. We continue to have some exposure to emerging market currencies where inflation, interest rates and growth are higher. However, we have trimmed this back recently as we think the EU/IMF/ECB management of Greece’s unsustainable debt load is looking more likely to induce a crisis before the inevitable restructuring. This would be negative for the Euro, and therefore positive for the US$ against most currencies including emerging markets.

Disclosure: Author is Long MSFT, FDO

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About Me 0088

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Making Money Cash

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